Monday, April 30, 2012

Barack Obama enjoys the support of three-fifths of American Jews, according to the latest American Jewish Committee survey, a significant improvement over where he stood half a year ago in the organization’s polling

The poll shows Obama with 61% of the Jewish vote, as opposed to 28% for Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who is the likely Republican nominee. That’s an improvement for Obama over an AJC survey in September 2011, when Obama scored 50% and Romney 32%. But it’s still substantially lower than the 78% Obama scored among Jews in exit polls in 2008 and an improvement for Romney over the 22% garnered by the previous GOP nominee, John McCain. The AJC’s new findings are similar to those of the Public Religion Research Institute in March 2012. That poll showed Obama scoring 62% of the Jewish vote, as opposed to 30% for a GOP candidate. In the AJC poll, respondents identified the economy and health care as by far the two most important election issues. Among respondents who attend synagogue at least once a week, only 52% said that they would vote for Obama, likely reflective of the more conservative leanings of Orthodox voters. The 11% of respondents who were undecided in the AJC poll said that they leaned toward Romney and Obama in roughly equal numbers. Romney, for his part, struggles with high negative ratings from Jews, with 57% saying that they have an unfavorable view of him. He is, however, far more popular with Jews than his previous top two GOP primary opponents; Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are each viewed unfavorably by approximately three-quarters of Jews. Obama has spoken three times in the past six months to Jewish audiences and emphasized Israel’s security, whatever the forum — whether it was the Union for Reform Judaism in December 2011, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in March 2012 or the US Holocaust Memorial Museum in April 2012. The approach appears to be paying off among Jewish voters. The AJC poll showed Obama scoring 58% approval in how he managed the US-Israel relationship and 69% in how he handled national security. In September 2011, just 40% of respondents to an AJC poll approved of his handling of the US relationship with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also saw a spike in approval for his handling of the US-Israel relationship, to 70% from 54% in September 2011. Then and now, the economy seems to be the most important factor influencing voters. Just 37% of Jewish respondents approved of Obama’s handling of the economy in September 2011. That climbed 20 points to 57% in this poll. Asked about the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, 89% of respondents said that they were concerned, with 64% supporting a U.S. strike should diplomacy and sanctions fail. Majorities of respondents said that they preferred Democrats over Republicans on every issue on which they were queried. Democrats beat Republicans most decisively on social issues: 81% preferred how Democrats handled abortion, and 74% preferred how the party dealt with church-state issues. Republicans won their highest marks on US-Israel relations, where they were favored by 40% as opposed to 57% support for Democrats, and the Iranian nuclear issue, where they were preferred by 37% to 60% for Democrats. The gender gap in the general electorate was reflected among Jews: Obama had the support of 67% of Jewish women as opposed to 55% of Jewish men; Romney had the support of 34% of Jewish men and 22% of women.

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